I've read and listened to the commentary on this and these people just aren't making any sense to me. Netscape had three items of value: Netcenter, Navigator, and the e-commerce server software.

First, if Netscape couldn't be successful with these assets, why would AOL be? Ok, so they "sold" off the e-commerce side to Sun, but all they got in return was a bunch of servers. Not exactly a company-making deal. Next.

Netcenter. 20 million eyeballs. But then why didn't they just imitate this? There's really not that much content there - just branding. Was it in fact the Netscape cachet? The different demographics? But, as a Sun executive kindly pointed out recently, there is no more Netscape. No more cachet.

It must be the browser software. But AOL is sticking with Explorer and seems still to be in bed with Microsoft. What's with that?

Oh, that's right. All the commentators are saying that the *real* story is that AOL is going to fight to bypass Microsoft by putting browser technology in net appliances. AOL needed Netscape software to do that.

Uh, wait. Let's see:
  1) Appliances need some sort of OS. Does AOL get one from Netscape? No.
  2) AOL can use either Microsoft's CE or Sun's Java platform as an OS for web appliances.
  3) Netscape Communicator is open-source - AOL already had it for free.

Last argument - this buyout enables AOL to compete with Microsoft on the Internet. Both tout this. The government's case is weakened. Are you kidding? How? Wrt Internet appliances and/or content, see above.

Wrt to PCs, the Microsoft monopoly is founded not on the OS or even browser integration. It's based on Word, and other Microsoft-owned applications. Word, unfortunately, is the lowest common denominator and de facto commercial standard. Word was the axe held over Apple's head. Lack of Word is a huge reason why you don't have another OS (which the DOJ seems not to realize). AOL buying Netscape doesn't change this at all.

Here's what does make sense. Netscape was battered to its knees by Microsoft. Microsoft is being accused by the US DOJ of unfair competition by Netscape. Microsoft's business friend AOL comes along and administers the coup de grace to Netscape.

No more Netscape. No more browser wars. Just at the best time for Microsoft. How convenient.

Alright, companies aren't usually that clever. Perhaps AOL just can't attract the right kind of people to Virginia. But if they were buying people, then the deal was a lot more expensive than the stated selling price of Netscape and we're back to the question of how AOL is going to make money with Netcenter when Netscape didn't make enough to stay in business? Let's see if they keep the Netscape organization and people intact. What's your bet?

What do you think? Is there real cleverness going on here or is this just the usual randomness that defies sensible analysis?

PS - Maybe Javagator will carry on the Netscape tradition.

© 1998 Charles Petrie
Founding EIC of IEEE Internet Computing

Last modified: Mon Nov 30 15:13:29 PST 1998